Kaspi.kz Investment Analysis – Why Did We Take an Ownership Stake in the Central Asian Fintech Platform?
A fundamental principle of Duna Capital's investment philosophy is that when buying shares, we do not bet on short-term price movements—we acquire ownership stakes in operating businesses. We look for business models capable of expanding their earning power over the long term, possessing durable competitive advantages, and trading at valuations that offer an attractive return profile relative to the risks assumed.
Guided by this thesis, in August 2026, Duna Capital built a position in Nasdaq-listed Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI) within our investment portfolio.
What makes the company particularly compelling is that it operates a digital ecosystem with exceptionally high user engagement, while its valuation trails significantly behind many Western tech and fintech peers. This is coupled with its expansion into Türkiye, which, if successful, could unlock a substantially larger addressable market for the company.
However, the investment is not without risk. Due to its exposure to Kazakhstan and Türkiye, we must accept significantly higher country, currency, and regulatory risks with Kaspi than we would with a developed-market enterprise.
What Is Kaspi.kz?
To oversimplify, it would be easy to define Kaspi.kz merely as a digital bank or a fintech company. In reality, it represents a far more complex ecosystem model.
The company built its ecosystem around three mutually reinforcing platforms:
Payments → Marketplace → Fintech
Within the exact same digital ecosystem, a consumer can make payments, shop, access financial services, and finance their purchases.
This creates a formidable competitive moat.
The more consumers utilize Kaspi's services, the more attractive the platform becomes for merchants. As more merchants join, product selection expands, which in turn attracts additional consumers. Meanwhile, integrated payment and financial services deepen customer retention and engagement.
According to Kaspi's own data, its Super App boasts approximately 16.2 million monthly active users (MAUs), with the average active consumer executing roughly 77 transactions per month.
This is no longer just an app. Kaspi has evolved into a critical pillar of Kazakhstan's digital infrastructure.
Three Mutually Reinforcing Business Lines
1. Payments
Kaspi's payment infrastructure seamlessly connects consumers and merchants.
In the second quarter of 2026, Total Payment Volume (TPV) across the Payments platform approached $26 billion, representing a 13% year-over-year increase.
While a valuable stand-alone business, its strategic importance is even greater: the payments network serves as the primary gateway into Kaspi's broader ecosystem.
2. Marketplace
The Marketplace represents one of Kaspi's primary growth engines.
In Q2 2026, Marketplace Gross Merchandise Value (GMV)—the gross value of goods sold through the platform—reached approximately $4.8 billion, up 15% year-over-year.
During the quarter, the platform processed 109.5 million purchases, while active consumers reached 20.5 million.
The momentum within the e-commerce segment is particularly noteworthy: Q2 2026 results show constant-currency e-commerce GMV up 28% and transaction count up 33% year-over-year.
3. Fintech
The third pillar is financing.
Kaspi's proprietary tech infrastructure enables digital credit underwriting within seconds. Furthermore, financing is natively embedded into the Marketplace: consumers select a product and seamlessly obtain financing within the very same ecosystem.
In Q2 2026, the Fintech division generated approximately $946 million in revenue and $356 million in adjusted EBITDA, with revenue expanding 23% year-over-year.
This underscores the power of the model: Kaspi does not run three standalone businesses. It monetizes the exact same customer relationship across multiple interconnected services.
Strong Growth Alongside High Profitability
From an investment perspective, a key factor for us is that Kaspi is not a speculative tech story hoping to achieve profitability in the distant future. The company generates substantial earnings today.
In Q2 2026, consolidated revenue reached approximately $2.3 billion, up 15% year-over-year, while quarterly net income approached $539 million.
Q2 2026 Metric Value YoY Change
Consolidated Revenue ~$2.3B +15%
Net Income ~$539M 0%
Payments TPV ~$26B +13%
Marketplace GMV ~$4.8B +15%
Marketplace EBITDA ~$266M +9%
Fintech Revenue ~$946M +23%
Fintech EBITDA ~$356M +6%
An interesting dynamic of the current period is that top-line revenue growth has not yet translated into equivalent net income expansion. At first glance, this might appear negative.
As investors, however, we evaluate whether this reflects structural margin erosion or temporary earnings headwinds.
Current earnings are burdened by elevated funding costs and investments related to international expansion. As the monetary environment eventually normalizes, this could unlock additional earnings growth potential.
Why We Find Valuation Compelling
A great company is not necessarily a great investment. Price matters.
This is particularly relevant for technology equities, where investors often pay steep valuation multiples for growth.
Duna Capital began building its position in Kaspi.kz at a share price level around $105.
Relative to the company's earnings power and growth prospects, we consider this valuation attractive.
However, the valuation discount exists for a reason.
The market applies a significant risk premium due to Kazakhstan, coupled with execution, foreign exchange, and macroeconomic risks stemming from its Turkish expansion.
The investment opportunity arises precisely from this dislocation.
We are not claiming these risks do not exist. For us, the question is whether current trading prices compensate—or potentially over-compensate—for them.
Based on our current assessment, they do.
Turkey: The Largest Optionality in the Investment Thesis
A key element of Kaspi's next growth chapter is Türkiye.
Following its acquisition of Hepsiburada, the company entered the substantially larger Turkish e-commerce market and subsequently closed the acquisition of Rabobank A.Ş. in 2026. For Kaspi investors, the closing of the Rabobank acquisition is already part of the 2026 milestones.
The strategic logic is compelling. The goal is not merely owning an e-commerce platform. Kaspi gains the opportunity to replicate its proven Kazakh playbook:
Marketplace + Payments + Fintech + Banking
If successful, Kaspi's Total Addressable Market (TAM) expands dramatically.
At the same time, this represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the thesis.
The sheer size of the Turkish market does not guarantee success. The competitive landscape is different, the regulatory environment is distinct, inflation and FX risks are substantial, and successfully executing the Kazakh model could require multi-year effort.
Consequently, we do not view Turkish expansion as a core baseline assumption required for the investment to work, but rather as major optionality.
This is a critical distinction.
Capital Allocation and Dividends
In the case of Kaspi, we also view positively that alongside growth, the company actively returns capital to shareholders.
On June 11, 2026, shareholders approved a dividend of 850 Kazakh Tenge per share based on Q1 2026 results.
Alongside Q2 2026 results, the Board recommended a quarterly dividend of 1,000 Tenge per ADS (subject to shareholder approval), representing an 18% increase compared to the previous quarter.
As investors, we view this as significant because the company can simultaneously fund organic growth, execute international expansion, and return cash to equity holders.
Potential Investment Outcomes
At Duna Capital, we do not base investment decisions on a single price target. We think in scenarios.
For Kaspi, three primary outcomes should be distinguished:
Bear Case: Growth in the core Kazakh business slows, elevated interest rates exert persistent pressure on profitability, and Turkish expansion fails to deliver expected results. In this scenario, low starting valuation alone does not guarantee downside protection, and the stock could suffer material capital losses.
Base Case: The Kazakh ecosystem continues to expand, e-commerce and fintech segments maintain growth, the financing environment eventually normalizes, and Türkiye gradually contributes positively to bottom-line earnings. In this scenario, earnings growth and partial multiple expansion jointly drive shareholder returns.
Bull Case: Kaspi successfully adapts its ecosystem model in Türkiye while the Kazakh core business maintains strong momentum. In this outcome, the market may re-rate the company over time from a regional Kazakh financial firm to an international fintech and digital commerce platform, unlocking both higher earnings and multiple expansion.
This creates the compelling return asymmetry of the trade for us.
What Would Change Our Mind?
An investment thesis is not dogma. When facts change, we must update our view.
For Kaspi, we closely track:
core Kazakh business growth and profitability;
Marketplace activity, specifically e-commerce GMV dynamics;
credit portfolio quality and cost of funding;
integration progress in Turkey;
Hepsiburada monetization and path to profitability;
execution of the Turkish fintech/banking strategy;
KZT and TRY currency risks;
regulatory environments in Kazakhstan and Turkey;
management's capital allocation discipline.
A structural degradation in any of these factors could invalidate our current investment thesis.
Duna Capital's Investment Approach
Kaspi.kz exemplifies the type of companies we seek in our public equity investments.
We are not necessarily looking for the most widely known companies or the most popular consensus stocks. We seek to own businesses with resilient business models, durable moats, high earning power, and clear growth levers—at entry prices that offer a sufficient margin of safety and attractive long-term expected returns.
Our thesis on Kaspi rests on three pillars:
Exceptional digital ecosystem and network effects.
Growing, highly profitable core business at a compelling valuation.
Substantial growth optionality in Türkiye.
However, higher expected returns come with higher risk. Consequently, we treat Kaspi.kz as a measured position within a diversified portfolio.
Our investment horizon spans multiple years. We are not trying to predict where the stock price will trade a few months from now.
Our question is much simpler:
Will Kaspi be a larger, more valuable enterprise five years from now than it is today—and are we paying a fair price for that growth?
Based on our current analysis, the answer to both questions is yes.
Legal Disclaimer
This publication is intended solely for general informational and educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Duna Capital and/or its affiliated entities may hold positions in the financial instruments mentioned in this article. The value of investments can fluctuate, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.